Target Price Playground
WDC
$469.05
๐ข
WDC IV: 76.8% โ LOW
(-36.4% vs 30d avg of 120.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $510 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $469.05 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $510 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.45 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $510 by Oct 16: the covered call returns +$8,040 (18.7%) on $42,960 risked, vs +$4,095 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $46,905. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $510. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $510 by Oct 16
+$8,040
+18.7% on $42,960 risked
Max Profit
+$8,040
If the stock โฅ $510 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$42,960
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$429.60
-8.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.77 / 51.31 / -75.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 (-20%) | -$6,573 | -$6,046 | -$5,573 | -$5,436 |
| $399 (-15%) | -$4,775 | -$4,101 | -$3,402 | -$3,091 |
| $422 (-10%) | -$3,123 | -$2,309 | -$1,367 | -$745 |
| $446 (-5%) | -$1,626 | -$689 | +$485 | +$1,600 |
| $460 (-2%) | -$802 | +$196 | +$1,491 | +$3,007 |
| $469 (0%) โ spot | -$284 | +$750 | +$2,114 | +$3,945 |
| $478 (+2%) | +$210 | +$1,275 | +$2,698 | +$4,883 |
| $493 (+5%) | +$906 | +$2,007 | +$3,500 | +$6,290 |
| $510 (+9%) โ target | +$1,698 | +$2,830 | +$4,372 | +$8,040 |
| $516 (+10%) | +$1,950 | +$3,088 | +$4,638 | +$8,040 |
| $539 (+15%) | +$2,859 | +$4,003 | +$5,540 | +$8,040 |
| $563 (+20%) | +$3,642 | +$4,766 | +$6,234 | +$8,040 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.