Target Price Playground
WDC
$469.05
๐ข
WDC IV: 76.8% โ LOW
(-36.4% vs 30d avg of 120.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $445 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $470 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $68.95 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $445 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $42.73 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $445 by Oct 16: the diagonal put spread returns +$2,955 (112.7%) on $2,622 risked, vs $-2,405 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $46,905. Options give 22.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $445. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $445 by Oct 16
+$2,955
+112.7% on $2,622 risked
Max Profit
+$2,929
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,768
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$517.05
+10.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-5.88 / 8.2 / 22.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 (-20%) | +$292 | +$462 | +$697 | +$659 |
| $399 (-15%) | +$298 | +$508 | +$860 | +$1,251 |
| $422 (-10%) | +$265 | +$498 | +$924 | +$2,040 |
| $445 (-5%) โ target | +$198 | +$432 | +$876 | +$3,005 |
| $460 (-2%) | +$138 | +$363 | +$789 | +$2,260 |
| $469 (0%) โ spot | +$94 | +$309 | +$713 | +$1,824 |
| $478 (+2%) | +$45 | +$248 | +$623 | +$1,418 |
| $493 (+5%) | -$35 | +$146 | +$464 | +$866 |
| $516 (+10%) | -$184 | -$49 | +$157 | +$82 |
| $539 (+15%) | -$347 | -$264 | -$180 | -$547 |
| $563 (+20%) | -$518 | -$488 | -$519 | -$1,046 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.