Target Price Playground
WDC
$469.05
๐ข
WDC IV: 76.8% โ LOW
(-36.4% vs 30d avg of 120.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $530 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $470 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $54.02 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $530 by Oct 16: the long call returns +$598 (11.1%) on $5,402 risked, vs +$6,095 (13.0%) for 100 shares on $46,905. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $530. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $530 by Oct 16
+$598
+11.1% on $5,402 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$5,402
Premium paid
Break-even
$524.02
+11.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.0 / -51.73 / 72.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 (-20%) | -$3,635 | -$4,304 | -$5,028 | -$5,402 |
| $399 (-15%) | -$2,879 | -$3,682 | -$4,649 | -$5,402 |
| $422 (-10%) | -$1,955 | -$2,869 | -$4,051 | -$5,402 |
| $446 (-5%) | -$864 | -$1,859 | -$3,196 | -$5,402 |
| $460 (-2%) | -$131 | -$1,158 | -$2,554 | -$5,402 |
| $469 (0%) โ spot | +$388 | -$653 | -$2,073 | -$5,402 |
| $478 (+2%) | +$932 | -$119 | -$1,549 | -$4,559 |
| $493 (+5%) | +$1,791 | +$736 | -$688 | -$3,152 |
| $516 (+10%) | +$3,333 | +$2,293 | +$930 | -$806 |
| $530 (+13%) โ target | +$4,316 | +$3,298 | +$1,995 | +$598 |
| $539 (+15%) | +$4,998 | +$3,998 | +$2,744 | +$1,539 |
| $563 (+20%) | +$6,773 | +$5,830 | +$4,714 | +$3,884 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.