Target Price Playground
WDC
$469.05
๐ข
WDC IV: 76.8% โ LOW
(-36.4% vs 30d avg of 120.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $470 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $53.55 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $415 by Oct 16: the long put returns +$145 (2.7%) on $5,355 risked, vs $-5,405 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $46,905. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $415 by Oct 16
+$145
+2.7% on $5,355 risked
Max Profit
+$41,645
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$5,355
Premium paid
Break-even
$416.45
-11.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.27 / -47.13 / 72.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 (-20%) | +$5,565 | +$4,999 | +$4,385 | +$4,121 |
| $399 (-15%) | +$3,975 | +$3,276 | +$2,419 | +$1,776 |
| $415 (-12%) โ target | +$2,969 | +$2,189 | +$1,178 | +$145 |
| $422 (-10%) | +$2,554 | +$1,743 | +$672 | -$570 |
| $446 (-5%) | +$1,300 | +$409 | -$819 | -$2,915 |
| $460 (-2%) | +$625 | -$298 | -$1,584 | -$4,322 |
| $469 (0%) โ spot | +$207 | -$731 | -$2,041 | -$5,260 |
| $478 (+2%) | -$187 | -$1,134 | -$2,455 | -$5,355 |
| $493 (+5%) | -$735 | -$1,687 | -$3,001 | -$5,355 |
| $516 (+10%) | -$1,539 | -$2,475 | -$3,729 | -$5,355 |
| $539 (+15%) | -$2,219 | -$3,116 | -$4,260 | -$5,355 |
| $563 (+20%) | -$2,789 | -$3,628 | -$4,635 | -$5,355 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.