Target Price Playground
WDC
$469.05
๐ข
WDC IV: 76.8% โ LOW
(-36.4% vs 30d avg of 120.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $520 by Oct 16
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
56d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $469.05 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $445 ยท Oct '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $42.73 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WDC hits $520 by Oct 16: the protective put returns +$822 (1.6%) on $51,178 risked, vs +$5,095 (10.9%) for 100 shares on $46,905. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Oct 16, 2026 (56 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WDC is at $520. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WDC hits $520 by Oct 16
+$822
+1.6% on $51,178 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$6,678
Put floors you at $445
Break-even
$511.78
+9.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 56d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.6 / -45.37 / 69.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WDC Price | Today | Sep 8 | Sep 27 | Oct 16 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $375 (-20%) | -$4,675 | -$5,325 | -$6,114 | -$6,678 |
| $399 (-15%) | -$3,763 | -$4,527 | -$5,533 | -$6,678 |
| $422 (-10%) | -$2,675 | -$3,519 | -$4,683 | -$6,678 |
| $446 (-5%) | -$1,416 | -$2,306 | -$3,549 | -$6,618 |
| $460 (-2%) | -$585 | -$1,485 | -$2,735 | -$5,211 |
| $469 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$900 | -$2,141 | -$4,273 |
| $478 (+2%) | +$608 | -$288 | -$1,508 | -$3,335 |
| $493 (+5%) | +$1,561 | +$680 | -$491 | -$1,928 |
| $520 (+11%) โ target | +$3,554 | +$2,726 | +$1,695 | +$822 |
| $539 (+15%) | +$5,052 | +$4,276 | +$3,364 | +$2,763 |
| $563 (+20%) | +$6,950 | +$6,245 | +$5,483 | +$5,108 |
Uses WDC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.