AHCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AHCO - AdaptHealth Corp. Common Stock
$10.80
0.12 (1.12%)
▲
5d:
+0.37%
30d:
+1.89%
90d:
-17.62%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AHCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AHCO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.25
18.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AHCO is currently trading at $10.80, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.18 to $10.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AHCO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.37, while resistance sits at $11.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.14 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AHCO is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.37, while resistance sits at $11.70.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.14 (+31.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$10.18 -
$10.92
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.0% below Wall St target ($14.14)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.18 -
$10.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.78
(7.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.37
Resistance Level
$11.70
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.26
Wall Street Target
$14.14
(+31.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Profit Margin
-2.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 9.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.76
(0%)
2-Year Target
$10.71
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$10.67
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$10.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 30.7%)
$53.99
(+400%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 30.7%)
$24.12
(+123%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 30.7%)
$20.50
(+90%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$10.96
(+1.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 12:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AHCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Richard M Cashin Jr
BUY
447100 shares
2026-03-20
Richard M Cashin Jr
BUY
727 shares
2026-03-19
Richard M Cashin Jr
BUY
689336 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced AHCO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AHCO price and gamma walls.
