HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$83.33
1.21 (1.47%)
▲
5d:
+7.19%
30d:
-11.37%
90d:
-5.08%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
21d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
🚀 STRONG BUY: HCC shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 10th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.6% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
🚀 STRONG BUY: HCC shows excellent value with unusually cheap options (IV 10th percentile) and market pricing in only 0.6% annual growth despite strong fundamentals. High conviction opportunity.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$136.69
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$84.88
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $83.33, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.72 to $94.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.00 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (10th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.00 (+23.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$79.72 -
$94.34
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
10th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 10th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.6% below Wall St target ($103.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.72 -
$94.34
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.02
(8.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.90
Resistance Level
$110.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.55
Wall Street Target
$103.00
(+23.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1918.0%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$83.83
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$84.33
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$84.84
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$83.00
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$258.31
(+210%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 18.0%)
$136.98
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$116.44
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$176.20
(+111%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.8
Base Case
$160.18
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.7
Bear Case
$54.46
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 6:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
