HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$105.88
-4.40 (-3.99%)
▼
5d:
+9.19%
30d:
+26.02%
90d:
+25.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: HCC is 9.6% above its trading range ($96.64). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: HCC is 9.6% above its trading range ($96.64). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$108.87
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$67.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $105.88, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.88 to $96.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $83.79, while resistance sits at $110.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $83.79, while resistance sits at $110.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$82.88 -
$96.64
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+9.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($104.83)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.9% growth expectation is conservative given 1918% recent growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$82.88 -
$96.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.79
Resistance Level
$110.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.28
Wall Street Target
$104.83
(-1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1918.0%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 11.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$112.13
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$118.74
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$125.75
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$106.02
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 4.1%)
$196.91
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 4.1%)
$119.39
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 4.1%)
$100.66
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$213.33
(+104%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 40.9
Base Case
$193.94
(+85%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 37.2
Bear Case
$65.94
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelli K Gant
SELL
10000 shares
2026-01-12
Walter J Scheller
SELL
100000 shares
2026-01-12
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