HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
BITUMINOUS COAL & LIGNITE MINING
Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$84.25
+0.75 (+0.90%)
▲
5d:
+4.27%
30d:
-6.37%
90d:
-14.21%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (92%)
Quality Score
57/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$82.68 – $90.56
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.8x
FAIR
vs 11.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$106.50
+26.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$76.14 / $87.00
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Get Alerted When HCC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$179.23
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.29
24.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $84.25, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $82.68 to $90.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $76.14, while resistance sits at $87.00.
Market Sentiment: HCC scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.50 (+26.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $76.14, while resistance sits at $87.00.
Market Sentiment: HCC scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $106.50 (+26.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$82.68 -
$90.56
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$82.68 -
$90.56
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.51
(6.5%)
Support Level
$76.14
Resistance Level
$87.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.4% below Wall St target ($106.50)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.80
Wall Street Target
$106.50
(+26.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
55.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.6%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.72
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$79.27
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$76.89
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$84.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 38.6%)
$412.03
(+389%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 38.6%)
$224.10
(+166%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 38.6%)
$190.48
(+126%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.39
Bull Case
$163.19
(+94%)
Analyst growth 77.7%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$148.35
(+76%)
Market implied 77.7%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$56.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.8 to 11.8
Stabilization Target:
$92.04
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Share HCC Analysis
Share this live HCC analysis (with rich preview card) to Reddit, StockTwits, X, or embed the chart on your blog.
bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HCC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Warrior Met Coal reported strong Q3 2026 results, announcing a special $2.00 per-share dividend due to increased sales and production volumes and higher profitability from the Blue Creek mine.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong financial performance
Special dividend announcement
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 4:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Coking Coal Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Coking Coal by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
METC
Ramaco Resources Inc |
BUY
8 analysts |
$17 | 65 BUY |
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
Explore More Analysis & Live Quant Tools
Part A: Deep-Dive HCC Research Pages
