HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$79.44
0.03 (0.04%)
▲
5d:
-1.51%
30d:
-1.72%
90d:
-7.84%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.87
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.47
9.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $79.44, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.72 to $83.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1918.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $76.58, while resistance sits at $84.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.00 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $76.58, while resistance sits at $84.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $103.00 (+29.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$78.72 -
$83.65
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.7% below Wall St target ($103.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.72 -
$83.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.58
Resistance Level
$84.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.92
Wall Street Target
$103.00
(+29.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1918.0%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.46
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$77.52
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$76.59
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
$79.28
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.0%)
$254.17
(+220%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 19.0%)
$133.83
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 19.0%)
$113.76
(+43%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$176.88
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 33.4
Base Case
$160.80
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 30.3
Bear Case
$54.67
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$82.21
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:19 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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