Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$97.77
-3.88 (-3.82%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.33%
30d:
+1.09%
90d:
+3.99%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 3, 2026 at $103.80 · last confirmed Sep 8, 2026
Strength: 4.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HCC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 6.8% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$106.71
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$66.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $97.77, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $95.04 to $107.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCC scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $96.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: HCC scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$95.04 -
$107.36
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.17)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 6.8% growth expectation is conservative given 1448% recent growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$95.04 -
$107.36
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$6.40
(6.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$96.00
Resistance Level
$111.42
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.31
Wall Street Target
$105.17
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1447.8%
Profit Margin
13.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.8% premium
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 11.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.42
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$111.52
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$119.10
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â12)
PE COMPRESSION
$97.41
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 7.9%)
$173.24
(+77%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 7.9%)
$122.87
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: 7.9%)
$100.49
(+3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.06
Bull Case
$188.23
(+93%)
Analyst growth 68.3%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$171.11
(+75%)
Market implied 68.3%, PE stable at 25.0
Bear Case
$69.12
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 6:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
