KEY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KEY - KeyCorp
$21.67
0.79 (3.78%)
▲
5d:
+1.55%
30d:
-0.91%
90d:
+6.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.32
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.17
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KEY is currently trading at $21.67, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.08 to $21.85. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 33.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.03 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.03 (+15.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$21.08 -
$21.85
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.03)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.08 -
$21.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.58
Resistance Level
$21.87
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.05
Wall Street Target
$25.03
(+15.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.50
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$21.32
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$21.15
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$21.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 18.1%)
$77.85
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 18.1%)
$35.71
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 18.1%)
$30.35
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.63
Bull Case
$30.38
(+40%)
Analyst growth 32.3%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$27.62
(+28%)
Market implied 32.3%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$14.20
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$22.21
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 05, 2026 8:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KEY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-12
Andrew J Paine III
SELL
65961 shares
2026-02-06
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