KeyCorp (KEY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KEY - KeyCorp
$21.08
-0.13 (-0.61%)
▼
5d:
+5.45%
30d:
+4.1%
90d:
-6.35%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jan 20, 2027
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 21, 2026 at $21.03 · last confirmed Oct 23, 2026
Strength: 7.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: KEY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: KEY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.74
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.57
2.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KEY is currently trading at $21.08, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.89 to $20.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 24.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KEY scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.11 (+19.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.27. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KEY scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.11 (+19.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.89 -
$20.99
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding KEY? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.89 -
$20.99
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.45
Resistance Level
$21.27
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.73
Wall Street Target
$25.11
(+19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.7%
Profit Margin
28.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.72
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$20.37
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$20.02
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$20.98
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.1%)
$65.63
(+211%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 15.1%)
$32.16
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 15.1%)
$27.34
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.74
Bull Case
$28.79
(+36%)
Analyst growth 24.5%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$26.18
(+23%)
Market implied 24.5%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$14.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.2
Stabilization Target:
$22.09
(+4.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 5:48 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:48 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KEY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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