KeyCorp (KEY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

KEY - KeyCorp

NATIONAL COMMERCIAL BANKS
$21.84
0.11 (0.51%) ▲
5d: -1.27%
30d: -4.59%
90d: -2.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $22.18 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 8.2/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.29
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.53
3.1% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: KEY is currently trading at $21.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.74 to $22.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: KEY scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.02 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range $21.74 - $22.84
Company Quality Score 62/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 88.1%

All Signals

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($26.02)
  • BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $21.74 - $22.84
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $21.15
Resistance Level $22.35
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.22
Wall Street Target $26.02 (+19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 25.3%
Profit Margin 27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History -0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical 10.2 vs 10.4 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -0.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $21.75 (0%)
2-Year Target $21.67 (-1%)
3-Year Target $21.58 (-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) $21.96 (+1%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.8%) $68.76 (+215%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 16.8%) $34.84 (+60%)
Bear: (PE: 8.7, Growth: 16.8%) $29.62 (+36%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case $29.87 (+37%)
Analyst growth 25.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case $27.15 (+24%)
Market implied 25.0%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case $14.78 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.4
Stabilization Target: $22.22 (+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +1.7%
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Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL

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Advanced KEY Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KEY price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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