KeyCorp (KEY) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KEY - KeyCorp
$21.84
0.11 (0.51%)
▲
5d:
-1.27%
30d:
-4.59%
90d:
-2.19%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 15, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $22.18 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.29
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.53
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KEY is currently trading at $21.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.74 to $22.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 25.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KEY scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.02 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: KEY scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.02 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.74 -
$22.84
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($26.02)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.74 -
$22.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.15
Resistance Level
$22.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.22
Wall Street Target
$26.02
(+19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
25.3%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.75
(0%)
2-Year Target
$21.67
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$21.58
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$21.96
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 16.8%)
$68.76
(+215%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 16.8%)
$34.84
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 16.8%)
$29.62
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.71
Bull Case
$29.87
(+37%)
Analyst growth 25.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$27.15
(+24%)
Market implied 25.0%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$14.78
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$22.22
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KEY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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