KEY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KEY - KeyCorp
$23.22
-0.08 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
-0.9%
30d:
+5.64%
90d:
+8.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 21, 2026
6d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KEY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.87
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KEY is currently trading at $23.22, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.23 to $23.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.85 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KEY is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.31. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $25.85 (+11.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$22.23 -
$23.30
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($25.85)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.23 -
$23.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.58
Resistance Level
$22.31
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.81
Wall Street Target
$25.85
(+11.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
27.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.8 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.57
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$23.92
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$24.28
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.7%)
$76.32
(+229%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.8, Growth: 17.7%)
$37.86
(+63%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 17.7%)
$32.18
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.63
Bull Case
$33.79
(+46%)
Analyst growth 31.8%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$30.72
(+32%)
Market implied 31.8%, PE stable at 14.3
Bear Case
$15.84
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 8:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KEY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-12
Andrew J Paine III
SELL
65961 shares
2026-02-06
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