VRRM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRRM - Verra Mobility Corporation Class A Common Stock
$4.56
-0.10 (-2.15%)
âŧ
5d:
-3.39%
30d:
+16.92%
90d:
-65.89%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRRM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -20.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: VRRM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -20.6% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.55
Based on -6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRRM is currently trading at $4.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.15 to $5.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.9) compared to its historical average (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VRRM scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+50.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: VRRM scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.00 (+50.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.15 -
$5.12
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VRRM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.2% below Wall St target ($7.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.15 -
$5.12
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.45
Resistance Level
$4.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.91
Wall Street Target
$7.00
(+50.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.9 vs 9.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.77
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.40
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5â10)
$6.77
(+45%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -16.9%)
$13.87
(+198%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.9, Growth: -16.9%)
$3.40
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: -16.9%)
$2.89
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.28
Bull Case
$10.23
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$9.30
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.6
Bear Case
$3.16
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.9 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$9.29
(+99.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+99.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:07 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:07 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRRM price and gamma walls.
