Verra Mobility (VRRM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRRM - Verra Mobility Corporation Class A Common Stock
$3.12
0.17 (5.59%)
▲
5d:
+5.95%
30d:
-7.84%
90d:
-23.09%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VRRM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -28.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: VRRM trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -28.7% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.69
Based on -6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.53
11.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRRM is currently trading at $3.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.86 to $3.37. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.1) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 28.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: VRRM scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.40 (+116.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRRM is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $3.12. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: VRRM scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.40 (+116.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$2.86 -
$3.37
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 116.9% below Wall St target ($6.40)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.86 -
$3.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.62
Resistance Level
$3.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.13
Wall Street Target
$6.40
(+116.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-15.0%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-28.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.1 vs 8.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-28.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.66
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.39
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.15
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→9)
$5.91
(+101%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -17.1%)
$13.66
(+363%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.1, Growth: -17.1%)
$2.15
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.7, Growth: -17.1%)
$1.83
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.27
Bull Case
$6.62
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$6.02
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$2.05
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.1 to 8.6
Stabilization Target:
$8.11
(+175.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+175.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRRM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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