Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.43 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $305 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.2 ยท ฮ -0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $290 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,677 (203.8%) on $823 risked, vs $-4,134 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 16.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $290 by Nov 20
+$1,677
+203.8% on $823 risked
Max Profit
+$1,677
If the stock โค $305 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$823
Net debit
Break-even
$321.77
-2.89% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.84 / -1.88 / 10.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | +$1,497 | +$1,581 | +$1,656 | +$1,677 |
| $282 (-15%) | +$1,266 | +$1,384 | +$1,554 | +$1,677 |
| $290 (-12%) โ target | +$1,099 | +$1,216 | +$1,414 | +$1,677 |
| $298 (-10%) | +$908 | +$1,006 | +$1,193 | +$1,677 |
| $315 (-5%) | +$476 | +$496 | +$534 | +$700 |
| $325 (-2%) | +$216 | +$183 | +$105 | -$294 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | +$54 | -$10 | -$148 | -$823 |
| $338 (+2%) | -$96 | -$183 | -$357 | -$823 |
| $348 (+5%) | -$291 | -$396 | -$581 | -$823 |
| $364 (+10%) | -$530 | -$631 | -$760 | -$823 |
| $381 (+15%) | -$677 | -$748 | -$811 | -$823 |
| $398 (+20%) | -$756 | -$797 | -$821 | -$823 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.