Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.94 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $360 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.35 ยท ฮ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $370 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$1,841 (158.8%) on $1,159 risked, vs +$3,866 (11.7%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 13.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $370 by Nov 20
+$1,841
+158.8% on $1,159 risked
Max Profit
+$1,841
If the stock โฅ $360 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,159
Net debit
Break-even
$341.59
+3.09% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
30.38 / -3.11 / 14.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$1,119 | -$1,148 | -$1,159 | -$1,159 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$1,027 | -$1,099 | -$1,152 | -$1,159 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$827 | -$948 | -$1,094 | -$1,159 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$495 | -$626 | -$852 | -$1,159 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$239 | -$344 | -$553 | -$1,159 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$53 | -$129 | -$289 | -$1,025 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$140 | +$100 | +$12 | -$362 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$430 | +$449 | +$488 | +$632 |
| $364 (+10%) | +$876 | +$977 | +$1,177 | +$1,841 |
| $370 (+12%) โ target | +$1,006 | +$1,125 | +$1,347 | +$1,841 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$1,232 | +$1,368 | +$1,589 | +$1,841 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$1,483 | +$1,608 | +$1,763 | +$1,841 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.