Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $350 by Nov 20: the cash-secured put returns +$520 (1.7%) on $-520 credit (max loss $29,980), vs +$1,866 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$3,434 | -$3,403 | -$3,405 | -$3,473 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$2,122 | -$1,996 | -$1,857 | -$1,816 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$1,092 | -$895 | -$620 | -$159 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$374 | -$168 | +$115 | +$520 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$79 | +$105 | +$335 | +$520 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | +$70 | +$233 | +$417 | +$520 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$187 | +$326 | +$466 | +$520 |
| $350 (+6%) โ target | +$334 | +$430 | +$505 | +$520 |
| $364 (+10%) | +$433 | +$488 | +$518 | +$520 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$486 | +$511 | +$520 | +$520 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$508 | +$518 | +$520 | +$520 |