Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $330 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.52 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.85 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $315 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,024 (133.5%) on $767 risked, vs $-1,634 (-4.9%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 27.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $315 by Nov 20
+$1,024
+133.5% on $767 risked
Max Profit
+$994
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$767
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$333.17
+0.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.4 / 1.4 / 19.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | +$611 | +$629 | +$631 | +$621 |
| $282 (-15%) | +$572 | +$620 | +$661 | +$637 |
| $298 (-10%) | +$471 | +$543 | +$653 | +$730 |
| $315 (-5%) โ target | +$294 | +$360 | +$481 | +$1,053 |
| $325 (-2%) | +$167 | +$211 | +$291 | +$443 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | +$74 | +$100 | +$139 | +$112 |
| $338 (+2%) | -$20 | -$15 | -$17 | -$149 |
| $348 (+5%) | -$159 | -$180 | -$236 | -$426 |
| $364 (+10%) | -$363 | -$414 | -$508 | -$661 |
| $381 (+15%) | -$518 | -$577 | -$659 | -$740 |
| $398 (+20%) | -$625 | -$673 | -$727 | -$762 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.