Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.43 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $290 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$2,657 (197.8%) on $1,343 risked, vs $-4,134 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 15.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $290 by Nov 20
+$2,657
+197.8% on $1,343 risked
Max Profit
+$31,657
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,343
Premium paid
Break-even
$316.57
-4.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.2 / -10.44 / 55.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | +$4,932 | +$4,983 | +$5,061 | +$5,150 |
| $282 (-15%) | +$3,388 | +$3,380 | +$3,411 | +$3,493 |
| $290 (-12%) โ target | +$2,663 | +$2,611 | +$2,592 | +$2,657 |
| $298 (-10%) | +$2,000 | +$1,901 | +$1,813 | +$1,836 |
| $315 (-5%) | +$850 | +$664 | +$420 | +$180 |
| $325 (-2%) | +$295 | +$77 | -$229 | -$814 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$16 | -$243 | -$565 | -$1,343 |
| $338 (+2%) | -$283 | -$509 | -$823 | -$1,343 |
| $348 (+5%) | -$604 | -$813 | -$1,082 | -$1,343 |
| $364 (+10%) | -$964 | -$1,119 | -$1,278 | -$1,343 |
| $381 (+15%) | -$1,163 | -$1,259 | -$1,331 | -$1,343 |
| $398 (+20%) | -$1,264 | -$1,315 | -$1,341 | -$1,343 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.