Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $331.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $370 by Nov 20: the long stock returns +$3,866 (11.7%) on $33,134 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Nov 20.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $370 by Nov 20
+$3,866
+11.7% on $33,134 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$33,134
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$331.34
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 16 | Nov 15 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$6,627 | -$6,627 | -$6,627 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$4,970 | -$4,970 | -$4,970 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$3,313 | -$3,313 | -$3,313 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$1,657 | -$1,657 | -$1,657 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$663 | -$663 | -$663 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$663 | +$663 | +$663 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$1,657 | +$1,657 | +$1,657 |
| $364 (+10%) | +$3,313 | +$3,313 | +$3,313 |
| $370 (+12%) โ target | +$3,866 | +$3,866 | +$3,866 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$4,970 | +$4,970 | +$4,970 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$6,627 | +$6,627 | +$6,627 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.