Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $331.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.85 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $365 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$2,581 (7.6%) on $33,919 risked, vs +$3,366 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $365 by Nov 20
+$2,581
+7.6% on $33,919 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,419
Put floors you at $315
Break-even
$339.19
+2.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
70.55 / -9.69 / 46.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$2,555 | -$2,546 | -$2,501 | -$2,419 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$2,326 | -$2,404 | -$2,461 | -$2,419 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$1,864 | -$2,032 | -$2,246 | -$2,419 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$1,109 | -$1,324 | -$1,630 | -$2,419 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$512 | -$725 | -$1,018 | -$1,448 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$59 | -$260 | -$521 | -$785 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$434 | +$251 | +$32 | -$122 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$1,234 | +$1,086 | +$934 | +$872 |
| $365 (+10%) โ target | +$2,742 | +$2,654 | +$2,591 | +$2,581 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$4,255 | +$4,209 | +$4,186 | +$4,185 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$5,869 | +$5,849 | +$5,842 | +$5,842 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.