Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $16.94 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.43 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $380 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns +$1,963 (64.6%) on $3,037 risked, vs +$4,866 (14.7%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 4.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $380. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $380 by Nov 20
+$1,963
+64.6% on $3,037 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,037
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$360.37
+8.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
20%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.18 / -23.39 / 110.36
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | +$3,283 | +$3,301 | +$3,367 | +$3,456 |
| $282 (-15%) | +$1,853 | +$1,751 | +$1,724 | +$1,799 |
| $298 (-10%) | +$734 | +$450 | +$186 | +$142 |
| $315 (-5%) | +$89 | -$368 | -$946 | -$1,514 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$26 | -$547 | -$1,249 | -$2,508 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | +$13 | -$525 | -$1,258 | -$2,903 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$143 | -$393 | -$1,111 | -$2,240 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$495 | -$8 | -$635 | -$1,246 |
| $364 (+10%) | +$1,432 | +$1,037 | +$630 | +$410 |
| $380 (+15%) โ target | +$2,604 | +$2,320 | +$2,080 | +$1,963 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$4,146 | +$3,958 | +$3,817 | +$3,724 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.