Target Price Playground
AAPL
$315.32
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.9% โ LOW
(-41.6% vs 30d avg of 46.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $340 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $315.32 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $340 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.2 ยท ฮ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $340 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$3,088 (10.0%) on $30,912 risked, vs +$2,468 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $31,532. Options give 1.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $340. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $340 by Sep 18
+$3,088
+10.0% on $30,912 risked
Max Profit
+$3,088
If the stock โฅ $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,912
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$309.12
-1.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
71.49 / 9.55 / -51.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $252 (-20%) | -$5,695 | -$5,687 | -$5,686 | -$5,686 |
| $268 (-15%) | -$4,148 | -$4,119 | -$4,110 | -$4,110 |
| $284 (-10%) | -$2,658 | -$2,577 | -$2,536 | -$2,533 |
| $300 (-5%) | -$1,282 | -$1,119 | -$989 | -$957 |
| $309 (-2%) | -$538 | -$317 | -$104 | -$11 |
| $315 (0%) โ spot | -$84 | +$173 | +$448 | +$620 |
| $322 (+2%) | +$333 | +$623 | +$958 | +$1,251 |
| $331 (+5%) | +$884 | +$1,212 | +$1,616 | +$2,197 |
| $340 (+8%) โ target | +$1,323 | +$1,667 | +$2,102 | +$3,088 |
| $347 (+10%) | +$1,607 | +$1,953 | +$2,385 | +$3,088 |
| $363 (+15%) | +$2,104 | +$2,420 | +$2,779 | +$3,088 |
| $378 (+20%) | +$2,419 | +$2,679 | +$2,932 | +$3,088 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.