Target Price Playground
AAPL
$331.34
๐ข
AAPL IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-36.0% vs 30d avg of 42.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $331.34 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $360 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.35 ยท ฮ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If AAPL hits $360 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$3,401 (10.4%) on $32,599 risked, vs +$2,866 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $33,134. Options give 1.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if AAPL is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if AAPL hits $360 by Nov 20
+$3,401
+10.4% on $32,599 risked
Max Profit
+$3,401
If the stock โฅ $360 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$32,599
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$325.99
-1.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
74.0 / 9.84 / -40.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| AAPL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$6,098 | -$6,093 | -$6,092 | -$6,092 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$4,462 | -$4,441 | -$4,435 | -$4,435 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$2,874 | -$2,810 | -$2,780 | -$2,778 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$1,391 | -$1,251 | -$1,143 | -$1,122 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$581 | -$383 | -$196 | -$128 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$83 | +$153 | +$403 | +$535 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$376 | +$647 | +$963 | +$1,198 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$988 | +$1,301 | +$1,698 | +$2,192 |
| $360 (+9%) โ target | +$1,602 | +$1,941 | +$2,388 | +$3,401 |
| $364 (+10%) | +$1,793 | +$2,134 | +$2,582 | +$3,401 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$2,349 | +$2,665 | +$3,047 | +$3,401 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$2,700 | +$2,962 | +$3,232 | +$3,401 |
Uses AAPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.