Target Price Playground
APP
$331.46
๐ก
APP IV: 65.1% โ NORMAL
(-10.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $36.7 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $305 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.05 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $290 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,235 (97.6%) on $1,265 risked, vs $-4,146 (-12.5%) for 100 shares on $33,146. Options give 7.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $290 by Nov 20
+$1,235
+97.6% on $1,265 risked
Max Profit
+$1,235
If the stock โค $305 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,265
Net debit
Break-even
$317.35
-4.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.45 / -2.23 / 4.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | +$640 | +$726 | +$900 | +$1,235 |
| $282 (-15%) | +$472 | +$533 | +$675 | +$1,235 |
| $290 (-13%) โ target | +$385 | +$430 | +$541 | +$1,235 |
| $298 (-10%) | +$296 | +$323 | +$397 | +$1,235 |
| $315 (-5%) | +$118 | +$107 | +$96 | +$246 |
| $325 (-2%) | +$13 | -$21 | -$85 | -$748 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$55 | -$104 | -$201 | -$1,265 |
| $338 (+2%) | -$122 | -$185 | -$313 | -$1,265 |
| $348 (+5%) | -$219 | -$301 | -$469 | -$1,265 |
| $365 (+10%) | -$370 | -$479 | -$694 | -$1,265 |
| $381 (+15%) | -$507 | -$634 | -$871 | -$1,265 |
| $398 (+20%) | -$629 | -$767 | -$1,002 | -$1,265 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.