Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $350 by Nov 20: the cash-secured put returns +$2,405 (8.6%) on $-2,405 credit (max loss $28,095), vs +$1,854 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $33,146. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$3,082 | -$2,630 | -$2,063 | -$1,578 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$2,121 | -$1,598 | -$894 | +$79 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$1,292 | -$725 | +$63 | +$1,736 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$589 | -$3 | +$806 | +$2,405 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$222 | +$361 | +$1,156 | +$2,405 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$578 | +$1,353 | +$2,405 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$206 | +$776 | +$1,524 | +$2,405 |
| $350 (+6%) โ target | +$539 | +$1,085 | +$1,773 | +$2,405 |
| $365 (+10%) | +$885 | +$1,394 | +$1,994 | +$2,405 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$1,207 | +$1,665 | +$2,160 | +$2,405 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$1,466 | +$1,869 | +$2,262 | +$2,405 |