Target Price Playground
APP
$331.46
๐ก
APP IV: 65.1% โ NORMAL
(-10.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $330 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $42.03 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.57 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $315 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,697 (126.1%) on $1,346 risked, vs $-1,646 (-5.0%) for 100 shares on $33,146. Options give 25.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $315 by Nov 20
+$1,697
+126.1% on $1,346 risked
Max Profit
+$1,656
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,158
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$354.77
+7.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
86%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-6.47 / 4.58 / 12.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | +$267 | +$359 | +$482 | +$408 |
| $282 (-15%) | +$255 | +$369 | +$561 | +$728 |
| $298 (-10%) | +$220 | +$345 | +$581 | +$1,205 |
| $315 (-5%) โ target | +$164 | +$287 | +$529 | +$1,862 |
| $325 (-2%) | +$122 | +$238 | +$467 | +$1,351 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | +$91 | +$200 | +$412 | +$1,042 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$57 | +$158 | +$350 | +$760 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$3 | +$89 | +$243 | +$386 |
| $365 (+10%) | -$95 | -$39 | +$42 | -$118 |
| $381 (+15%) | -$198 | -$174 | -$169 | -$493 |
| $398 (+20%) | -$304 | -$311 | -$374 | -$765 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.