Target Price Playground
APP
$331.46
๐ก
APP IV: 65.1% โ NORMAL
(-10.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $40.3 ยท ฮ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $370 by Nov 20: the long call returns $-30 (-0.7%) on $4,030 risked, vs +$3,854 (11.6%) for 100 shares on $33,146. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $370 by Nov 20
$-30
-0.7% on $4,030 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$4,030
Premium paid
Break-even
$370.30
+11.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.67 / -31.27 / 54.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$2,857 | -$3,309 | -$3,790 | -$4,030 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$2,329 | -$2,877 | -$3,528 | -$4,030 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$1,677 | -$2,303 | -$3,105 | -$4,030 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$901 | -$1,582 | -$2,492 | -$4,030 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$378 | -$1,081 | -$2,028 | -$4,030 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$6 | -$718 | -$1,679 | -$3,884 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$384 | -$333 | -$1,299 | -$3,221 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$1,001 | +$283 | -$674 | -$2,227 |
| $365 (+10%) | +$2,109 | +$1,406 | +$502 | -$569 |
| $370 (+12%) โ target | +$2,489 | +$1,796 | +$916 | -$30 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$3,307 | +$2,637 | +$1,817 | +$1,088 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$4,584 | +$3,958 | +$3,240 | +$2,745 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.