Target Price Playground
APP
$331.46
๐ก
APP IV: 65.1% โ NORMAL
(-10.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $365 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $331.46 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $28.57 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $365 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$497 (1.4%) on $36,003 risked, vs +$3,354 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $33,146. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $365 by Nov 20
+$497
+1.4% on $36,003 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,503
Put floors you at $315
Break-even
$360.03
+8.62% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
73%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.61 / -26.06 / 52.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$3,262 | -$3,683 | -$4,181 | -$4,503 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$2,636 | -$3,140 | -$3,796 | -$4,503 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$1,881 | -$2,444 | -$3,216 | -$4,503 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$999 | -$1,596 | -$2,426 | -$4,503 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$413 | -$1,018 | -$1,854 | -$3,520 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$605 | -$1,434 | -$2,857 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$430 | -$171 | -$985 | -$2,194 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$1,105 | +$515 | -$263 | -$1,200 |
| $365 (+10%) โ target | +$2,335 | +$1,779 | +$1,088 | +$497 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$3,588 | +$3,076 | +$2,485 | +$2,115 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$4,940 | +$4,480 | +$3,995 | +$3,772 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.