Target Price Playground
APP
$506.98
๐ข
APP IV: 70.9% โ LOW
(-28.8% vs 30d avg of 99.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $550 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $506.98 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $550 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $51.2 ยท ฮ 0.47
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $550 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$9,422 (20.7%) on $45,578 risked, vs +$4,302 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $50,698. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $550. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $550 by Sep 18
+$9,422
+20.7% on $45,578 risked
Max Profit
+$9,422
If the stock โฅ $550 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$45,578
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$455.78
-10.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
52.61 / 49.66 / -90.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $406 (-20%) | -$6,530 | -$5,841 | -$5,226 | -$5,020 |
| $431 (-15%) | -$4,650 | -$3,792 | -$2,920 | -$2,485 |
| $456 (-10%) | -$2,925 | -$1,910 | -$770 | +$50 |
| $482 (-5%) | -$1,359 | -$208 | +$1,179 | +$2,585 |
| $497 (-2%) | -$496 | +$723 | +$2,237 | +$4,106 |
| $507 (0%) โ spot | +$47 | +$1,305 | +$2,892 | +$5,120 |
| $517 (+2%) | +$566 | +$1,858 | +$3,507 | +$6,134 |
| $532 (+5%) | +$1,299 | +$2,632 | +$4,352 | +$7,655 |
| $550 (+8%) โ target | +$2,085 | +$3,450 | +$5,220 | +$9,422 |
| $558 (+10%) | +$2,405 | +$3,779 | +$5,559 | +$9,422 |
| $583 (+15%) | +$3,373 | +$4,757 | +$6,527 | +$9,422 |
| $608 (+20%) | +$4,216 | +$5,581 | +$7,281 | +$9,422 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.