Target Price Playground
APP
$331.46
๐ก
APP IV: 65.1% โ NORMAL
(-10.4% vs 30d avg of 72.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $360 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $331.46 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $360 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.28 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If APP hits $360 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$5,482 (18.0%) on $30,518 risked, vs +$2,854 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $33,146. Options give 2.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if APP is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if APP hits $360 by Nov 20
+$5,482
+18.0% on $30,518 risked
Max Profit
+$5,482
If the stock โฅ $360 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,518
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$305.18
-7.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.34 / 30.26 / -57.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| APP Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $265 (-20%) | -$4,713 | -$4,371 | -$4,078 | -$4,001 |
| $282 (-15%) | -$3,422 | -$2,976 | -$2,529 | -$2,344 |
| $298 (-10%) | -$2,237 | -$1,691 | -$1,072 | -$687 |
| $315 (-5%) | -$1,164 | -$529 | +$255 | +$971 |
| $325 (-2%) | -$576 | +$104 | +$975 | +$1,965 |
| $331 (0%) โ spot | -$206 | +$500 | +$1,420 | +$2,628 |
| $338 (+2%) | +$145 | +$874 | +$1,837 | +$3,291 |
| $348 (+5%) | +$639 | +$1,394 | +$2,406 | +$4,285 |
| $360 (+9%) โ target | +$1,183 | +$1,958 | +$3,004 | +$5,482 |
| $365 (+10%) | +$1,378 | +$2,157 | +$3,209 | +$5,482 |
| $381 (+15%) | +$2,015 | +$2,798 | +$3,838 | +$5,482 |
| $398 (+20%) | +$2,560 | +$3,327 | +$4,313 | +$5,482 |
Uses APP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.