Target Price Playground
FTNT
$172.37
๐ข
FTNT IV: 55.9% โ LOW
(-26.3% vs 30d avg of 75.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $170 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.0 ยท ฮ -0.42
SHORT PUT ยท $160 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.15 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FTNT hits $150 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$615 (159.7%) on $385 risked, vs $-2,237 (-13.0%) for 100 shares on $17,237. Options give 12.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FTNT is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FTNT hits $150 by Nov 20
+$615
+159.7% on $385 risked
Max Profit
+$615
If the stock โค $160 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$385
Net debit
Break-even
$166.15
-3.61% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-9.34 / -0.68 / 1.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FTNT Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $138 (-20%) | +$415 | +$456 | +$530 | +$615 |
| $147 (-15%) | +$334 | +$368 | +$438 | +$615 |
| $150 (-13%) โ target | +$299 | +$327 | +$389 | +$615 |
| $155 (-10%) | +$246 | +$264 | +$307 | +$615 |
| $164 (-5%) | +$155 | +$153 | +$154 | +$240 |
| $169 (-2%) | +$101 | +$88 | +$61 | -$277 |
| $172 (0%) โ spot | +$66 | +$46 | +$2 | -$385 |
| $176 (+2%) | +$32 | +$5 | -$53 | -$385 |
| $181 (+5%) | -$16 | -$53 | -$127 | -$385 |
| $190 (+10%) | -$90 | -$137 | -$226 | -$385 |
| $198 (+15%) | -$153 | -$205 | -$294 | -$385 |
| $207 (+20%) | -$206 | -$258 | -$336 | -$385 |
Uses FTNT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.