Target Price Playground
FTNT
$172.37
๐ข
FTNT IV: 55.9% โ LOW
(-26.3% vs 30d avg of 75.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $172.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $185 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.5 ยท ฮ 0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FTNT hits $185 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$2,513 (15.7%) on $15,987 risked, vs +$1,263 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $17,237. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FTNT is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FTNT hits $185 by Nov 20
+$2,513
+15.7% on $15,987 risked
Max Profit
+$2,513
If the stock โฅ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$15,987
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$159.87
-7.25% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
55.16 / 13.48 / -29.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FTNT Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $138 (-20%) | -$2,377 | -$2,276 | -$2,207 | -$2,197 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$1,651 | -$1,502 | -$1,372 | -$1,336 |
| $155 (-10%) | -$985 | -$784 | -$574 | -$474 |
| $164 (-5%) | -$388 | -$138 | +$158 | +$388 |
| $169 (-2%) | -$65 | +$209 | +$552 | +$905 |
| $172 (0%) โ spot | +$136 | +$423 | +$794 | +$1,250 |
| $176 (+2%) | +$325 | +$624 | +$1,016 | +$1,595 |
| $181 (+5%) | +$585 | +$897 | +$1,313 | +$2,112 |
| $185 (+7%) โ target | +$770 | +$1,087 | +$1,513 | +$2,513 |
| $190 (+10%) | +$963 | +$1,283 | +$1,711 | +$2,513 |
| $198 (+15%) | +$1,275 | +$1,589 | +$1,995 | +$2,513 |
| $207 (+20%) | +$1,526 | +$1,824 | +$2,186 | +$2,513 |
Uses FTNT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.