Target Price Playground
FTNT
$172.37
๐ข
FTNT IV: 55.9% โ LOW
(-26.3% vs 30d avg of 75.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $172.37 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $165 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.9 ยท ฮ -0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If FTNT hits $190 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$473 (2.6%) on $18,527 risked, vs +$1,763 (10.2%) for 100 shares on $17,237. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FTNT is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if FTNT hits $190 by Nov 20
+$473
+2.6% on $18,527 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,027
Put floors you at $165
Break-even
$185.27
+7.48% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.13 / -11.26 / 27.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| FTNT Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $138 (-20%) | -$1,715 | -$1,849 | -$1,988 | -$2,027 |
| $147 (-15%) | -$1,450 | -$1,633 | -$1,857 | -$2,027 |
| $155 (-10%) | -$1,103 | -$1,322 | -$1,617 | -$2,027 |
| $164 (-5%) | -$673 | -$912 | -$1,245 | -$2,027 |
| $169 (-2%) | -$377 | -$620 | -$957 | -$1,635 |
| $172 (0%) โ spot | -$164 | -$406 | -$738 | -$1,290 |
| $176 (+2%) | +$60 | -$179 | -$501 | -$945 |
| $181 (+5%) | +$416 | +$186 | -$113 | -$428 |
| $190 (+10%) โ target | +$1,088 | +$881 | +$638 | +$473 |
| $198 (+15%) | +$1,751 | +$1,571 | +$1,382 | +$1,296 |
| $207 (+20%) | +$2,486 | +$2,336 | +$2,199 | +$2,157 |
Uses FTNT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.