Target Price Playground
META
$670.24
๐ข
META IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-23.6% vs 30d avg of 52.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $670 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $46.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $620 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.4 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $590 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$2,860 (133.6%) on $2,140 risked, vs $-8,024 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $67,024. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $590 by Nov 20
+$2,860
+133.6% on $2,140 risked
Max Profit
+$2,860
If the stock โค $620 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$2,140
Net debit
Break-even
$648.60
-3.23% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.97 / -3.73 / 18.62
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $536 (-20%) | +$2,156 | +$2,374 | +$2,680 | +$2,860 |
| $570 (-15%) | +$1,706 | +$1,919 | +$2,308 | +$2,860 |
| $590 (-12%) โ target | +$1,382 | +$1,559 | +$1,920 | +$2,860 |
| $603 (-10%) | +$1,157 | +$1,298 | +$1,603 | +$2,860 |
| $637 (-5%) | +$561 | +$584 | +$643 | +$1,187 |
| $657 (-2%) | +$204 | +$152 | +$38 | -$824 |
| $670 (0%) โ spot | -$26 | -$125 | -$342 | -$2,140 |
| $684 (+2%) | -$246 | -$388 | -$690 | -$2,140 |
| $704 (+5%) | -$555 | -$747 | -$1,134 | -$2,140 |
| $737 (+10%) | -$999 | -$1,237 | -$1,650 | -$2,140 |
| $771 (+15%) | -$1,349 | -$1,588 | -$1,931 | -$2,140 |
| $804 (+20%) | -$1,610 | -$1,821 | -$2,061 | -$2,140 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.