Target Price Playground
META
$670.24
๐ข
META IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-23.6% vs 30d avg of 52.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $720 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $670.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $720 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.5 ยท ฮ 0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $720 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$8,126 (12.7%) on $63,874 risked, vs +$4,976 (7.4%) for 100 shares on $67,024. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $720. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $720 by Nov 20
+$8,126
+12.7% on $63,874 risked
Max Profit
+$8,126
If the stock โฅ $720 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$63,874
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$638.74
-4.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.8 / 38.98 / -102.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $536 (-20%) | -$10,459 | -$10,318 | -$10,258 | -$10,255 |
| $570 (-15%) | -$7,375 | -$7,100 | -$6,925 | -$6,904 |
| $603 (-10%) | -$4,505 | -$4,049 | -$3,657 | -$3,552 |
| $637 (-5%) | -$1,923 | -$1,271 | -$571 | -$201 |
| $657 (-2%) | -$537 | +$223 | +$1,120 | +$1,810 |
| $670 (0%) โ spot | +$314 | +$1,136 | +$2,153 | +$3,150 |
| $684 (+2%) | +$1,106 | +$1,979 | +$3,100 | +$4,490 |
| $704 (+5%) | +$2,180 | +$3,109 | +$4,340 | +$6,501 |
| $720 (+7%) โ target | +$2,949 | +$3,903 | +$5,176 | +$8,126 |
| $737 (+10%) | +$3,674 | +$4,634 | +$5,905 | +$8,126 |
| $771 (+15%) | +$4,828 | +$5,746 | +$6,897 | +$8,126 |
| $804 (+20%) | +$5,687 | +$6,513 | +$7,453 | +$8,126 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.