Target Price Playground
META
$670.24
๐ข
META IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-23.6% vs 30d avg of 52.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $670 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $46.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $590 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$3,320 (70.9%) on $4,680 risked, vs $-8,024 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $67,024. Options give 5.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $590 by Nov 20
+$3,320
+70.9% on $4,680 risked
Max Profit
+$62,320
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$4,680
Premium paid
Break-even
$623.20
-7.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.81 / -35.21 / 111.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $536 (-20%) | +$8,674 | +$8,560 | +$8,548 | +$8,701 |
| $570 (-15%) | +$5,865 | +$5,564 | +$5,310 | +$5,350 |
| $590 (-12%) โ target | +$4,319 | +$3,899 | +$3,453 | +$3,320 |
| $603 (-10%) | +$3,384 | +$2,890 | +$2,314 | +$1,998 |
| $637 (-5%) | +$1,286 | +$644 | -$222 | -$1,353 |
| $657 (-2%) | +$221 | -$475 | -$1,447 | -$3,364 |
| $670 (0%) โ spot | -$408 | -$1,124 | -$2,128 | -$4,680 |
| $684 (+2%) | -$976 | -$1,697 | -$2,702 | -$4,680 |
| $704 (+5%) | -$1,718 | -$2,424 | -$3,377 | -$4,680 |
| $737 (+10%) | -$2,687 | -$3,318 | -$4,087 | -$4,680 |
| $771 (+15%) | -$3,378 | -$3,896 | -$4,439 | -$4,680 |
| $804 (+20%) | -$3,851 | -$4,248 | -$4,592 | -$4,680 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.