Target Price Playground
META
$670.24
๐ข
META IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-23.6% vs 30d avg of 52.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $740 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $670.24 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $640 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $34.45 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $740 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$3,531 (5.0%) on $70,469 risked, vs +$6,976 (10.4%) for 100 shares on $67,024. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $740. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $740 by Nov 20
+$3,531
+5.0% on $70,469 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$6,469
Put floors you at $640
Break-even
$704.69
+5.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.98 / -32.86 / 108.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $536 (-20%) | -$6,133 | -$6,374 | -$6,549 | -$6,469 |
| $570 (-15%) | -$5,343 | -$5,779 | -$6,265 | -$6,469 |
| $603 (-10%) | -$4,160 | -$4,756 | -$5,547 | -$6,469 |
| $637 (-5%) | -$2,557 | -$3,237 | -$4,191 | -$6,469 |
| $657 (-2%) | -$1,397 | -$2,085 | -$3,040 | -$4,785 |
| $670 (0%) โ spot | -$547 | -$1,224 | -$2,142 | -$3,445 |
| $684 (+2%) | +$360 | -$294 | -$1,152 | -$2,105 |
| $704 (+5%) | +$1,822 | +$1,218 | +$480 | -$94 |
| $740 (+10%) โ target | +$4,713 | +$4,231 | +$3,737 | +$3,531 |
| $771 (+15%) | +$7,373 | +$7,002 | +$6,687 | +$6,609 |
| $804 (+20%) | +$10,423 | +$10,161 | +$9,984 | +$9,960 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.