Target Price Playground
META
$670.24
๐ข
META IV: 40.2% โ LOW
(-23.6% vs 30d avg of 52.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $770 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $670 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $51.5 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $670 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $46.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $770 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns +$170 (1.7%) on $9,830 risked, vs +$9,976 (14.9%) for 100 shares on $67,024. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $770. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $770 by Nov 20
+$170
+1.7% on $9,830 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$9,830
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$768.30
+14.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.77 / -76.54 / 223.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $536 (-20%) | +$4,032 | +$3,631 | +$3,425 | +$3,551 |
| $570 (-15%) | +$1,766 | +$991 | +$301 | +$200 |
| $603 (-10%) | +$154 | -$1,005 | -$2,338 | -$3,152 |
| $637 (-5%) | -$690 | -$2,147 | -$4,060 | -$6,503 |
| $657 (-2%) | -$809 | -$2,374 | -$4,498 | -$8,514 |
| $670 (0%) โ spot | -$728 | -$2,331 | -$4,520 | -$9,806 |
| $684 (+2%) | -$524 | -$2,138 | -$4,329 | -$8,466 |
| $704 (+5%) | +$4 | -$1,580 | -$3,667 | -$6,455 |
| $737 (+10%) | +$1,416 | -$18 | -$1,737 | -$3,104 |
| $770 (+15%) โ target | +$3,336 | +$2,121 | +$845 | +$170 |
| $804 (+20%) | +$5,792 | +$4,825 | +$3,957 | +$3,599 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.