Target Price Playground
META
$669.21
๐ข
META IV: 42.7% โ LOW
(-24.7% vs 30d avg of 56.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $720 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $669.21 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $720 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $39.62 ยท ฮ 0.42
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If META hits $720 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$9,041 (14.4%) on $62,959 risked, vs +$5,079 (7.6%) for 100 shares on $66,921. Options give 1.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if META is at $720. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if META hits $720 by Sep 18
+$9,041
+14.4% on $62,959 risked
Max Profit
+$9,041
If the stock โฅ $720 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$62,959
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$629.59
-5.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.97 / 43.49 / -120.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| META Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $535 (-20%) | -$9,743 | -$9,531 | -$9,429 | -$9,422 |
| $569 (-15%) | -$6,742 | -$6,368 | -$6,116 | -$6,076 |
| $602 (-10%) | -$3,965 | -$3,392 | -$2,891 | -$2,730 |
| $636 (-5%) | -$1,471 | -$695 | +$128 | +$616 |
| $656 (-2%) | -$128 | +$757 | +$1,775 | +$2,624 |
| $669 (0%) โ spot | +$700 | +$1,647 | +$2,782 | +$3,962 |
| $683 (+2%) | +$1,472 | +$2,472 | +$3,707 | +$5,300 |
| $703 (+5%) | +$2,529 | +$3,586 | +$4,928 | +$7,308 |
| $720 (+8%) โ target | +$3,344 | +$4,428 | +$5,816 | +$9,041 |
| $736 (+10%) | +$4,024 | +$5,116 | +$6,506 | +$9,041 |
| $770 (+15%) | +$5,208 | +$6,266 | +$7,555 | +$9,041 |
| $803 (+20%) | +$6,120 | +$7,094 | +$8,186 | +$9,041 |
Uses META's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.