Target Price Playground
SPCX
$143.49
๐ข
SPCX IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-26.8% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.15 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $130 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.99 ยท ฮ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPCX hits $125 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$884 (143.5%) on $616 risked, vs $-1,849 (-12.9%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SPCX hits $125 by Nov 20
+$884
+143.5% on $616 risked
Max Profit
+$884
If the stock โค $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$616
Net debit
Break-even
$138.84
-3.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.6 / -1.17 / 4.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPCX Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | +$592 | +$654 | +$761 | +$884 |
| $122 (-15%) | +$469 | +$519 | +$623 | +$884 |
| $125 (-13%) โ target | +$413 | +$455 | +$546 | +$884 |
| $129 (-10%) | +$333 | +$361 | +$426 | +$884 |
| $136 (-5%) | +$193 | +$192 | +$193 | +$252 |
| $141 (-2%) | +$110 | +$91 | +$53 | -$178 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$56 | +$26 | -$36 | -$465 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$4 | -$37 | -$120 | -$616 |
| $151 (+5%) | -$71 | -$124 | -$233 | -$616 |
| $158 (+10%) | -$183 | -$253 | -$382 | -$616 |
| $165 (+15%) | -$279 | -$356 | -$483 | -$616 |
| $172 (+20%) | -$359 | -$435 | -$545 | -$616 |
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.