Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
SPCX
$143.49
๐ŸŸข
SPCX IV: 51.8% โ€” LOW (-26.8% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ€” good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $125 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

๐Ÿ“‹ Strategy

Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.

๐ŸŽฏ Target

65d from today

โš™๏ธ Legs

LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.15 ยท ฮ” -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $130 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.99 ยท ฮ” -0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $143 Target $125 $100 $143 $187
Stock (100 sh) Bear Put Spread Now Target
๐Ÿ’ก Stock vs Options at Target

If SPCX hits $125 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$884 (143.5%) on $616 risked, vs $-1,849 (-12.9%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 11.1ร— capital efficiency.

๐Ÿ“… Expiry

Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

๐Ÿ“Š Projected Return

P&L if SPCX hits $125 by Nov 20
+$884
+143.5% on $616 risked
Max Profit
+$884
If the stock โ‰ค $130 at expiry
Max Loss
โˆ’$616
Net debit
Break-even
$138.84
-3.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ” / ฮ˜ / V
-17.6 / -1.17 / 4.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐Ÿ’พ Log in to save ๐Ÿ“Š My Saved Strategies

๐Ÿ“‹ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ€” ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โ‰ฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

๐Ÿ“Š P&L Scenarios โ€” what happens at different prices and dates

SPCX Price Today Oct 7 Oct 29 Nov 20 (exp)
$115 (-20%) +$592 +$654 +$761 +$884
$122 (-15%) +$469 +$519 +$623 +$884
$125 (-13%) โ† target +$413 +$455 +$546 +$884
$129 (-10%) +$333 +$361 +$426 +$884
$136 (-5%) +$193 +$192 +$193 +$252
$141 (-2%) +$110 +$91 +$53 -$178
$143 (0%) โ† spot +$56 +$26 -$36 -$465
$146 (+2%) +$4 -$37 -$120 -$616
$151 (+5%) -$71 -$124 -$233 -$616
$158 (+10%) -$183 -$253 -$382 -$616
$165 (+15%) -$279 -$356 -$483 -$616
$172 (+20%) -$359 -$435 -$545 -$616
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.