Target Price Playground
SPCX
$143.49
๐ข
SPCX IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-26.8% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $145 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $155 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.6 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPCX hits $160 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$620 (163.2%) on $380 risked, vs +$1,651 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 14.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SPCX hits $160 by Nov 20
+$620
+163.2% on $380 risked
Max Profit
+$620
If the stock โฅ $155 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$380
Net debit
Break-even
$148.80
+3.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
11.19 / -0.29 / -0.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPCX Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | -$281 | -$317 | -$363 | -$380 |
| $122 (-15%) | -$225 | -$265 | -$330 | -$380 |
| $129 (-10%) | -$156 | -$192 | -$265 | -$380 |
| $136 (-5%) | -$76 | -$102 | -$163 | -$380 |
| $141 (-2%) | -$25 | -$42 | -$86 | -$380 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$9 | -$1 | -$30 | -$380 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$44 | +$41 | +$28 | -$244 |
| $151 (+5%) | +$95 | +$103 | +$116 | +$186 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$179 | +$204 | +$256 | +$620 |
| $160 (+12%) โ target | +$203 | +$233 | +$295 | +$620 |
| $165 (+15%) | +$256 | +$296 | +$375 | +$620 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$324 | +$374 | +$465 | +$620 |
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.