Target Price Playground
SPCX
$143.49
๐ข
SPCX IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-26.8% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.65 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $135 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.78 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPCX hits $135 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$688 (100.2%) on $687 risked, vs $-849 (-5.9%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 17.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SPCX hits $135 by Nov 20
+$688
+100.2% on $687 risked
Max Profit
+$684
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$648
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$148.03
+3.16% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
79%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.96 / 1.22 / 5.44
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPCX Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | +$241 | +$279 | +$324 | +$306 |
| $122 (-15%) | +$204 | +$252 | +$327 | +$376 |
| $129 (-10%) | +$152 | +$202 | +$293 | +$508 |
| $135 (-6%) โ target | +$100 | +$145 | +$231 | +$679 |
| $141 (-2%) | +$42 | +$78 | +$147 | +$341 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$11 | +$41 | +$96 | +$192 |
| $146 (+2%) | -$21 | +$2 | +$42 | +$59 |
| $151 (+5%) | -$70 | -$58 | -$43 | -$112 |
| $158 (+10%) | -$153 | -$160 | -$184 | -$328 |
| $165 (+15%) | -$232 | -$256 | -$311 | -$472 |
| $172 (+20%) | -$306 | -$343 | -$416 | -$564 |
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.