Target Price Playground
SPCX
$143.49
๐ข
SPCX IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-26.8% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.15 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPCX hits $125 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$685 (52.1%) on $1,315 risked, vs $-1,849 (-12.9%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 4.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SPCX hits $125 by Nov 20
+$685
+52.1% on $1,315 risked
Max Profit
+$13,185
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,315
Premium paid
Break-even
$131.85
-8.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-46.3 / -9.82 / 24.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPCX Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | +$1,813 | +$1,742 | +$1,690 | +$1,706 |
| $122 (-15%) | +$1,252 | +$1,138 | +$1,021 | +$988 |
| $125 (-13%) โ target | +$1,034 | +$902 | +$754 | +$685 |
| $129 (-10%) | +$754 | +$600 | +$412 | +$271 |
| $136 (-5%) | +$323 | +$138 | -$110 | -$447 |
| $141 (-2%) | +$97 | -$100 | -$372 | -$877 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | -$41 | -$242 | -$524 | -$1,164 |
| $146 (+2%) | -$168 | -$372 | -$658 | -$1,315 |
| $151 (+5%) | -$339 | -$545 | -$827 | -$1,315 |
| $158 (+10%) | -$580 | -$776 | -$1,032 | -$1,315 |
| $165 (+15%) | -$769 | -$947 | -$1,161 | -$1,315 |
| $172 (+20%) | -$914 | -$1,069 | -$1,235 | -$1,315 |
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.