Target Price Playground
SPCX
$143.49
๐ข
SPCX IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-26.8% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $143.49 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $135 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.78 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPCX hits $160 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$773 (5.1%) on $15,227 risked, vs +$1,651 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SPCX hits $160 by Nov 20
+$773
+5.1% on $15,227 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,727
Put floors you at $135
Break-even
$152.27
+6.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.68 / -9.17 / 23.17
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPCX Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | -$1,448 | -$1,561 | -$1,683 | -$1,727 |
| $122 (-15%) | -$1,214 | -$1,365 | -$1,557 | -$1,727 |
| $129 (-10%) | -$908 | -$1,086 | -$1,331 | -$1,727 |
| $136 (-5%) | -$529 | -$720 | -$986 | -$1,595 |
| $141 (-2%) | -$270 | -$461 | -$723 | -$1,165 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | -$84 | -$272 | -$526 | -$878 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$111 | -$73 | -$314 | -$591 |
| $151 (+5%) | +$420 | +$246 | +$28 | -$161 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$976 | +$823 | +$652 | +$557 |
| $160 (+12%) โ target | +$1,152 | +$1,006 | +$850 | +$773 |
| $165 (+15%) | +$1,572 | +$1,444 | +$1,319 | +$1,274 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$2,201 | +$2,098 | +$2,012 | +$1,992 |
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.