Target Price Playground
SPCX
$143.49
๐ข
SPCX IV: 51.8% โ LOW
(-26.8% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $165 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $145 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.4 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $145 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.15 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPCX hits $165 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns $-655 (-24.7%) on $2,655 risked, vs +$2,151 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $165. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SPCX hits $165 by Nov 20
$-655
-24.7% on $2,655 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,655
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$118.45
-17.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.4 / -20.51 / 48.14
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPCX Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | +$695 | +$516 | +$373 | +$366 |
| $122 (-15%) | +$292 | +$27 | -$247 | -$352 |
| $129 (-10%) | +$13 | -$332 | -$748 | -$1,069 |
| $136 (-5%) | -$132 | -$538 | -$1,074 | -$1,787 |
| $141 (-2%) | -$154 | -$584 | -$1,167 | -$2,217 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | -$141 | -$582 | -$1,184 | -$2,504 |
| $146 (+2%) | -$109 | -$555 | -$1,166 | -$2,519 |
| $151 (+5%) | -$22 | -$470 | -$1,074 | -$2,089 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$215 | -$215 | -$766 | -$1,371 |
| $165 (+15%) โ target | +$554 | +$160 | -$307 | -$655 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$981 | +$633 | +$262 | +$64 |
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.