Target Price Playground
SPCX
$143.49
๐ข
SPCX IV: 51.0% โ LOW
(-27.9% vs 30d avg of 70.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $155 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $143.49 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $155 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.6 ยท ฮ 0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If SPCX hits $155 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$2,111 (15.8%) on $13,389 risked, vs +$1,151 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $14,349. Options give 2.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if SPCX is at $155. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if SPCX hits $155 by Nov 20
+$2,111
+15.8% on $13,389 risked
Max Profit
+$2,111
If the stock โฅ $155 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$13,389
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$133.89
-6.69% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
57.49 / 10.4 / -24.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| SPCX Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $115 (-20%) | -$2,034 | -$1,962 | -$1,916 | -$1,910 |
| $122 (-15%) | -$1,417 | -$1,306 | -$1,214 | -$1,192 |
| $129 (-10%) | -$850 | -$695 | -$540 | -$475 |
| $136 (-5%) | -$338 | -$143 | +$84 | +$243 |
| $141 (-2%) | -$62 | +$155 | +$422 | +$673 |
| $143 (0%) โ spot | +$110 | +$339 | +$630 | +$960 |
| $146 (+2%) | +$272 | +$511 | +$822 | +$1,247 |
| $151 (+5%) | +$495 | +$746 | +$1,080 | +$1,677 |
| $155 (+8%) โ target | +$698 | +$955 | +$1,301 | +$2,111 |
| $158 (+10%) | +$819 | +$1,078 | +$1,425 | +$2,111 |
| $165 (+15%) | +$1,084 | +$1,340 | +$1,672 | +$2,111 |
| $172 (+20%) | +$1,299 | +$1,541 | +$1,838 | +$2,111 |
Uses SPCX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.