HAYW Hayward Holdings, Inc. REFRIGERATION & SERVICE INDUSTRY MACHINERY

Hayward (HAYW) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$16.77
+0.16 (+0.96%) ▲
5d: -1.24% 30d: +45.07% 90d: +9.68%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (20%)
Quality Score
37/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$11.55 – $15.90
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
17.5x FAIR
vs 16.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$17.50
+4.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$14.77 / $17.26
Trend: Strong Uptrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HAYW shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.23
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.18
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: HAYW is currently trading at $16.77, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.55 to $15.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.5) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, HAYW is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: HAYW scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $11.55 - $15.90
Company Quality Score 37/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 20.0%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $11.55 - $15.90
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $14.77
Resistance Level $17.26
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Nov 11, 2026

Protect Your Profits

HAYW is technically overbought (RSI 72). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.

View Profit Protection Plan

Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.5% above its trading range)
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.50)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 17.51
Wall Street Target $17.50 (+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 36.4%
Profit Margin 14.3%
Valuation Premium vs History +3.0% premium
PE vs Historical 17.5 vs 16.0 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +3.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $17.27 (+3%)
2-Year Target $17.79 (+6%)
3-Year Target $18.33 (+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 18→16) PE COMPRESSION $16.75 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.5%) $24.96 (+49%)
Base: (SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: 9.5%) $22.00 (+31%)
Bear: (PE: 14.9, Growth: 9.5%) $18.70 (+12%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.77
Bull Case $22.73 (+36%)
Analyst growth 24.4%, PE expands to 23.7
Base Case $20.67 (+23%)
Market implied 24.4%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case $11.29 (-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (HAYW)

Bearish 1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
May 1, 2022
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on HAYW are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 7:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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