HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$86.11
-1.85 (-2.10%)
▼
5d:
-10.2%
30d:
+0.77%
90d:
-0.44%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
Get Alerted When HCC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HCC is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: HCC is down 10.2% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.63
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $86.11, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $87.38 to $102.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.83 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $90.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.83 (+22.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$87.38 -
$102.39
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding HCC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($105.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.2% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$87.38 -
$102.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.43
(7.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.90
Resistance Level
$110.39
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.66
Wall Street Target
$105.83
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1918.0%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.88
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$87.67
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$88.46
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$86.45
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.4%)
$205.05
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 8.4%)
$109.82
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 8.4%)
$93.34
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$193.51
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.1
Base Case
$175.92
(+104%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 33.7
Bear Case
$59.81
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 1:26 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:26 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelli K Gant
SELL
10000 shares
2026-01-12
Walter J Scheller
SELL
100000 shares
2026-01-12
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
