MEDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MEDP - Medpace Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$512.79
39.31 (8.30%)
▲
5d:
+11.09%
30d:
+18.48%
90d:
+11.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MEDP is 8.5% above its trading range ($472.68). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MEDP is 8.5% above its trading range ($472.68). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$655.69
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$407.13
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MEDP is currently trading at $512.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $431.91 to $472.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.2) is in line with its historical norms (27.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEDP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $471.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MEDP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MEDP is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $471.23. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MEDP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$431.91 -
$472.68
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.5%
Protect Your Profits
MEDP is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+8.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($443.50)
- CAUTION: Extended 8.5% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$431.91 -
$472.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$26.05
(5.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$422.00
Resistance Level
$471.23
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.24
Wall Street Target
$443.50
(-6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Profit Margin
17.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.2 vs 27.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$458.33
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$443.66
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$429.46
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$473.09
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.2, Growth: 9.9%)
$628.37
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.9%)
$542.30
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 9.9%)
$460.95
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.90
Bull Case
$598.77
(+27%)
Analyst growth 18.0%, PE expands to 31.9
Base Case
$544.33
(+15%)
Market implied 18.0%, PE stable at 29.0
Bear Case
$313.69
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.2 to 27.8
Stabilization Target:
$521.57
(+10.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 4:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MEDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jesse J Geiger
SELL
31707 shares
2026-03-17
David Taylor
BUY
2026-02-26
David Taylor
BUY
2026-01-29
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Advanced MEDP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MEDP price and gamma walls.
