CM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CM - Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce
$116.49
0.80 (0.69%)
â˛
5d:
-5.86%
30d:
-0.03%
90d:
+1.42%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$146.36
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$90.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CM is currently trading at $116.49, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.28 to $121.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $115.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$117.28 -
$121.14
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($119.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$117.28 -
$121.14
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.24
Resistance Level
$124.86
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.42
Wall Street Target
$119.67
(+2.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.0%
Profit Margin
34.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$119.29
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$122.15
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$125.08
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$116.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.4%)
$285.92
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 8.4%)
$148.50
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 8.4%)
$126.22
(+8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.14
Bull Case
$199.18
(+71%)
Analyst growth 56.5%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$181.07
(+55%)
Market implied 56.5%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$78.67
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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