FAST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FAST - Fastenal Co
$45.60
-0.52 (-1.13%)
▼
5d:
-1.08%
30d:
+4.76%
90d:
+2.59%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 13, 2026
18d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FAST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.42
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at $45.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.04 to $46.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.4) is in line with its historical norms (33.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.26, while resistance sits at $47.78.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FAST is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $43.26, while resistance sits at $47.78.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$44.04 -
$46.39
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($46.66)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.04 -
$46.39
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$43.26
Resistance Level
$47.78
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
33.37
Wall Street Target
$46.66
(+2.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.8%
Profit Margin
15.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
33.4 vs 33.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$45.51
(0%)
2-Year Target
$45.42
(0%)
3-Year Target
$45.33
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→34)
$45.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.4, Growth: 10.5%)
$61.44
(+35%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.5%)
$40.10
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 10.5%)
$34.09
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$61.35
(+35%)
Analyst growth 20.9%, PE expands to 44.9
Base Case
$55.77
(+22%)
Market implied 20.9%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$31.36
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 33.4 to 33.6
Stabilization Target:
$45.91
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 12:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FAST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Reyne K Wisecup
SELL
36920 shares
2026-03-05
Scott Satterlee
SELL
15964 shares
2026-01-23
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-01-23
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