MSM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MSM - MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Class A
$119.81
2.11 (1.79%)
▲
5d:
-3.24%
30d:
-4.78%
90d:
+13.05%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Get Alerted When MSM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MSM is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$188.41
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MSM is currently trading at $119.81, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $121.00 to $125.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.0) is in line with its historical norms (20.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MSM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$121.00 -
$125.95
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($131.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$121.00 -
$125.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.11
Resistance Level
$125.72
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.00
Wall Street Target
$131.00
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.1%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
22.0 vs 20.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$122.69
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$125.63
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$128.65
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$119.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 18.3%)
$198.34
(+66%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$180.94
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 18.3%)
$153.80
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.14
Bull Case
$170.31
(+42%)
Analyst growth 31.5%, PE expands to 31.3
Base Case
$154.82
(+29%)
Market implied 31.5%, PE stable at 28.4
Bear Case
$80.04
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 9:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MSM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Industrial Distribution Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Industrial Distribution by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
FERG
Ferguson Plc |
BUY
24 analysts |
$288 | 42 HOLD |
|
CNM
Core & Main Inc |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$60 | 47 HOLD |
|
WCC
WESCO International Inc |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$397 | 48 HOLD |
|
GWW
WW Grainger Inc |
SELL
18 analysts |
$1325 | 64 BUY |
|
AIT
Applied Industrial Techn… |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$400 | 47 HOLD |
