Is HCA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, HCA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of HCA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for HCA to be between $384.25 and $418.03. The current price is $429.24.

What is the analyst price target for HCA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for HCA is $451.48. This implies a potential upside of 5.2% from current levels.

HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.

SERVICES-GENERAL MEDICAL & SURGICAL HOSPITALS, NEC

$429.24

0.05 (0.01%) ▲

5d: +5.99%

30d: +12.31%

90d: +8.92%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 23, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 19, 2026 at $407.05 · last confirmed Aug 19, 2026

Strength: 3.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: HCA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 8.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$614.03

Based on 6.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$381.27

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $429.24, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $384.25 to $418.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $436.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $384.25 - $418.03

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($451.48)
WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $384.25 - $418.03

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $400.00

Resistance Level $436.50

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Aug 24, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.37

Wall Street Target $451.48 (+5.2%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 8.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 11.6%

Profit Margin 8.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 13.4 vs 14.0 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $422.32 (-2%)

2-Year Target $415.57 (-3%)

3-Year Target $408.92 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→14) $428.29 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.9%) $831.69 (+94%)

Base: (SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 8.9%) $553.91 (+29%)

Bear: (PE: 11.4, Growth: 8.9%) $470.82 (+10%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 13.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.78

Bull Case $481.85 (+12%)

Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 15.0

Base Case $438.04 (+2%)

Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 13.6

Bear Case $276.26 (-36%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 14.0

Stabilization Target: $449.52 (+4.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.7%

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Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

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Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30

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