HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$406.61
4.02 (1.00%)
▲
5d:
+4.36%
30d:
-0.95%
90d:
-6.11%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 23, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$617.94
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$383.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $406.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $375.56 to $407.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.6) compared to its historical average (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $366.51, while resistance sits at $421.31.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $453.38 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $366.51, while resistance sits at $421.31.
Market Sentiment: HCA has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $453.38 (+11.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$375.56 -
$407.40
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($453.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$375.56 -
$407.40
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$366.51
Resistance Level
$421.31
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.64
Wall Street Target
$453.38
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.6%
Profit Margin
8.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 14.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$391.97
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$377.86
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$364.26
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$406.21
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.8%)
$858.48
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 8.8%)
$523.61
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 8.8%)
$445.07
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.83
Bull Case
$477.42
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 14.9
Base Case
$434.02
(+7%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 13.5
Bear Case
$273.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$453.44
(+11.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 7:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael R Mcalevey
SELL
1694 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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